72 NEWSLETTER Mr.Advice
Will there be a hole in #BTC and #ETH? When is halving #BTC and is it worth having #OP?
In today's newsletter the highlights themselves and a few tidbits.
Enjoy your reading!
MARKET ANALYSIS BY CRYPTOAARON
What's in store?
#BTC has a small space to go below $21700, for the moment no more. Ultimately, we are close to the bottom and a rebound awaits.
ETH is stronger and looks like it may fall slightly, but literally slightly. The market is sort of waiting to see what will transpire on the 10th with Mt.Gox, but after the fact it feels like exploding !
EDUCATIONAL TIP FROM CRYPTOAARON
The chart shows you one of the most effective methods of technical analysis.
This is a volume zone.
It includes the saint with the highest volume in the area.
How does this strategy work? Very simple!
The closing of the body of the candle above the volume zone gives us a sign that:
- Price has the right to return to the volume zone, but not lower, then make a higher peak
- We extend the volume zone if there is a taper that is higher or lower than it
You will find a detailed description of this strategy in the course:
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- Last week of February. What will it bring? How will we close the monthly candle? Market analysis - BTC and ETH
CryptoAaron's reliable market analysis.
2. how to understand boredom in the market? Why don't my coins grow ? FXS example
Knowledge of technical analysis using FXS as an example.
3 OP Analysis. Focus on the strongest coins!
The #OP looks optimistic!
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NEWS FROM THE WORLD OF CRYPTO
- Next Bitcoin halving as early as 2024
Bitcoin's next halving, where the BTC reward set aside for network validators for each block mined will be halved, is coming up in a little over a year and could be a key theme in the Bitcoin market in the coming quarters. That's because past halving has consistently had a huge impact on the price.
For reference, the current Bitcoin block reward is about 6.25 BTC, and mining a block takes about 10 minutes on average. In April 2024, this block reward will be reduced to 3.125 BTC, slowing Bitcoin's inflation rate from about 2.0% to about 1.0%. Bitcoin's inflation rate is designed to continue declining and is trending to zero to ensure that the supply of BTC never exceeds 21 million.
To date, there have been three instances of Bitcoin halving, the first in November 2012, the second in July 2016 and the most recent in April 2020. All three preceded huge increases in Bitcoin's price. At the time of the 2012 halving, Bitcoin was trading at around $12, and within a year or so had climbed above $1,000. The second halving occurred when Bitcoin's price was around $650. In less than a year and a half, Bitcoin's price reached $19,000. Finally, in 2020, halving took place when Bitcoin's price was below $9,000. Prices then hit record highs in November 2021 at $69,000.
Bitcoin has thus seen gains from the halving date to the next market peak of approximately 83x, 29x and 8x. Not surprisingly, as Bitcoin has matured as an asset class and its market capitalization has grown significantly, the pace of its post-halving gains has slowed and may slow further.
Perhaps halving in 2024 could result in a more modest 2-3x gain if we look at Bitcoin's peak post-halving price in 2024. With a litany of on-chain and technical indicators screaming that the bear market in 2022 is over, and 2023 started well for the world's largest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization, there will now be a continuation of gradual growth in 2023 and 2024, despite ongoing macro/liquidity headwinds due to Fed tightening.
- Shanghai Upgrade on Ethereum coming in April
Ethereum's Shanghai update is just around the corner, and that means users are starting to bet on their moves.
The entire focus of this particular update revolves around one thing: paying out staked Ethereum. Since the introduction of staking in December 2020, when the network was just beginning its journey to a proof-of-stake consensus algorithm, those who had locked up their funds have been unable to withdraw them.
This is expected to change in April. But is it a bearish or bullish harbinger?
Some say that people will quickly withdraw their ETH and a dump will occur to realize some profits.
These gains, however, will not be large. If you locked in your shares on December 1, 2020, the price of ETH at that time was $612. Selling at current prices would mean that the profit would be 156%. These are certainly noteworthy gains, but for a fairly narrow majority of users. In fact, in dollar terms, since the staking began, only 16% of stakers will benefit, according to Dune. If the upgrade were carried out today, the vast majority of users would suffer serious losses.
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THIS WEEK'S SCHEDULE
There will be no zooms with CryptoAaron this week due to health reasons. Feel free to check out the backlog of material and we'll be back with you next week!
*CryptoAaron's presencein chats in written form will take place normally.
Thank you for your understanding.
Have a profitable week!