#4 Newsletter Mr.Advice
Glassnode analysis
Today we will present an analysis of Glassnode. We will compare 2013 vs 2021, what happened on the portfolios and who is selling their BTC. Feel free to join the Analysis!!! 🙂
Hi, this is the Mr.Advice Team!
Let's start by comparing 2013 to 2021. Interestingly, the peak of the first peak was in April, In 2021 the peak, we also had in April. After which we saw the second peak after 8 months, in December and increases of ~340%, which would have made 290k this year
Let's look at the Stock to Flow Model, the chart looks identical 🙂 Growth - correction - growth - September correction, all at a similar time. Will we have one last Bull Run? We shall see 😎
Comparing the growth table, at the moment only April was different, May and June down, July, August up, and we have September down, like 2013? Will Q4 be bullish like 2013?
EXCHANGE BALANCE - this indicator shows how much bitcoin is flowing out of the exchanges. The less bitcoin on the exchanges, the better, less supply = more potential upside. Long term of course :).
We are currently at August 2018 levels.
The number of addresses holding 0.01 BTC (small investors) continues to rise, giving a puncture of the April ATH. Since the March correction, ~ 1 270 000 new addresses have been added.
On Addresses 1k - 10k, we see nice increases, i.e. buy local lows. We see, also a big drop in addresses, the options are two. Breaking one portfolio into smaller ones or realising gains.
Addresses with 1 BTC on the portfolio, one can conclude that these are moderately wealthy investors, As we can see, since the May correction, investors are increasing or, as I wrote above, portfolios are being broken into smaller ones :).
An indicator that shows how much bitcoin is transferred, from exchanges as well as to exchanges. In September, approx. - $3.35 B.
Spent Output Age Bands - an indicator that shows how much btc came out of a given address in a certain age range, if you bought BTC in January, you fall into the 6m-12m group (maroon colour). Before the local peak, there was a fair amount of activity from addresses 1-2 years old - 6.89%
Who is selling their BTC? The ASOL indicator shows the average length of existence of a transaction, i.e. you buy BTC and Glassnode counts when you sold it. Before the peak, profits were realised by people where BTC was held an AVERAGE of 232 days (January/February). Now profits or losses are realised by people who hold btc 25-40 days.
A lot of people say that we have a "DEAD CAT BOUNCE", also it is possible, Have it in the back of your mind :)In addition, I toss what the given distribution of addresses has supply 🙂
CONCLUSIONS:
- Large players are buying in
- Presumably, they also break their wallets into smaller ones
- The amount of BTC on exchanges is decreasing
-New investors sell to more experienced ones
News from the world of crypto
The Coindesk portal claims that Revolut is seeking approval from the UK securities regulator to launch its exchange token. If they get approval they will launch it in Europe first. The token would work in a similar way to its competitors, namely Nexo and Wirex.
The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority on 29.09.2021 officially approved Crypto Market Index as "the first crypto fund compliant with Swiss law". It has been established by Crypto Finance. It will be managed by PvB Pernet von Ballmoos AG under the supervision of SEBA Bank AG.
Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele has ordered the installation of bitcoin mining machines at a geothermal power plant to begin. He had already announced a bitcoin mine powered by energy extracted from volcanoes.
According to analyst firm Santiment, Bitcoin supply on exchanges has fallen to its lowest level since May 2019. This is usually a bullish signal as investors withdraw their BTC from exchanges because they have no intention of selling it. Santiment believes this is a good sign as the risk of a sell-off is reduced. The price of Bitcoin is increasingly immune to the FUD that keeps coming from China.
